One bid for Marina South

James Lim · CEA Reg. R063631F · PropNex Realty Pte Ltd

The tender for the Marina Gardens Lane Government Land Sales site closed at noon on 15 October with exactly one envelope inside. EL Development offered $450.1 million for the 99-year plot beside Gardens by the Bay, which works out to $1,243 psf per plot ratio for a site that can hold about 390 homes with a strip of shops at ground level. Analysts polled by EdgeProp before the close had expected three to six bidders and a top bid between $1,350 and $1,650 psf ppr; The Business Times’ poll ran to $1,500. They got one bidder, below the bottom of both ranges. URA has not awarded the site; it says a decision will follow once the bid has been evaluated. Until then, Marina South has a number on the table, and that number says a lot about how developers see Singapore’s newest waterfront neighbourhood.

What happened at the Marina Gardens Lane tender?

EL Development was the only developer to bid for the site, offering $450.1 million, or $13,379 per square metre of gross floor area, when the tender closed on 15 October 2026. URA launched the plot on 13 August as one of the first two of eight private residential sites on the 2H 2026 Confirmed List, a list that carries 4,745 homes, more than 50% above the ten-year average. The site is the third parcel released in Marina South and the smallest of the three: 6,007.4 sq m of land, a plot ratio of 5.6 and a maximum gross floor area of 33,642 sq m, zoned residential with commercial space on the first storey.

EL Development’s managing director Lim Yew Soon told EdgeProp that recent GLS sites had “fetched very high pricing”, and that the firm’s land price, if the site is awarded, could give buyers “a compelling reason” to consider living in an area that is not a traditional heartland. He pointed to the views from some units, the walk to Gardens by the Bay and Marina South MRT, and the developments still to come around the site. EL Development is the developer behind Blossoms By The Park at one-north, so a project of this size in a new precinct is well within its range.

How does $1,243 psf ppr compare with the precinct’s other tenders?

It lands between the two prices the market has already put on Marina South: 11.3% below the $1,402 psf ppr Kingsford paid for the One Marina Gardens plot in 2023, and 26.3% above the $984 psf ppr sole bid that URA rejected for the Marina Gardens Crescent white site in 2024. That middle position is why Huttons Asia’s Mark Yip expects URA to award it. The wider story is that developers have never agreed on what this precinct is worth. In the 2023 tender the runner-up, a GuocoLand and Hong Leong joint venture, offered $985 psf ppr, which meant Kingsford paid 42% more than the next bidder. A GuocoLand and Hong Leong grouping came back for the Crescent site seven months later at $984 and was turned down. EL Development’s $1,243 is the first price in three years that sits between those two camps.

There is a second comparison worth making. A District 1 site beside Gardens by the Bay has just been priced below several suburban and city-fringe plots this year. The Lorong Puntong and Sin Ming Avenue site drew seven bids and a top rate of $1,612 psf ppr in September, the New Upper Changi Road site set a suburban record at $1,537 in September, and the two other sole-bid tenders of 2026, Berlayar Drive and Holland Plain Parcel B, came in at $1,515 and $1,491. Marina South land is now cheaper than Sin Ming land. EL Development was in that Sin Ming field itself, bidding $182.1 million, or about $1,410 psf ppr, and finishing fourth of seven, a month before it offered $1,243 for a site beside Gardens by the Bay. That is the clearest statement yet of where developers think the risk sits: in an unfinished precinct, not in the postcode.

Why did only one developer bid for a site beside Gardens by the Bay?

Because the precinct is unfinished and the buyer pool is narrow, and every developer who priced the site knew both. Marina South MRT on the Thomson-East Coast Line has been built but is not open; LTA says it will open in tandem with the surrounding developments, with the date still to be advised. There is no primary school within 1 km, which CBRE’s Tricia Song flagged as a reason local families may look elsewhere. Foreign buyers, who historically carried demand in Marina Bay, now pay 60% additional buyer’s stamp duty. And the supply overhang is visible from the site: the 775-home Marina Gardens Crescent plot waits on the Reserve List across the road, and URA’s Master Plan 2025 plans more than 10,000 new homes across the 45-hectare precinct over the long term, with public flats widely expected to be part of the mix.

Two further pressures sit outside the precinct. SRI’s Mohan Sandrasegeran points to the sheer volume of residential land URA has released this year, which gives developers plenty of alternatives in locations with proven buyer bases. Huttons’ Yip notes that thin fields are a recurring pattern for GLS sites in the central business district. The resale record nearby does not help either. The Business Times reported, citing a consultant, that Marina One Residences recorded 30 unprofitable transactions in 2025 and that a 2,379 sq ft unit at Marina Bay Residences changed hands in the second quarter of 2026 at a $1.4 million loss. A developer underwriting a 2031 completion looks at that history and prices the risk, which is exactly what $1,243 does.

What does the URA Master Plan want Marina South to be?

A live-work-play neighbourhood in the city centre, built so that families live in Marina South rather than commute through it. URA’s Master Plan 2025 describes the Central Area as evolving into a greener, more inclusive live-work-play district and Marina South as its new model for city living: 45 hectares set amid gardens on the southern coast, more than 10,000 new homes, a 10-minute neighbourhood with two MRT stations, an elevated bridge to Gardens by the Bay and the Marina Coastal Park, an underground link to the station, and plazas and courtyards designed as the neighbourhood’s living rooms. That is the plan’s target resident: the household that works in the CBD and wants to walk home. The figure sets the promise against what is actually there in October 2026, and what carries a date.

Two things follow. The family buyer that anchors most Singapore launches was thin at One Marina Gardens for a reason: Singaporeans were about 83% of launch-weekend buyers, but one- and two-bedders took about 83% of the units sold and investors took most of those. And the housing mix is unsettled: URA calls the neighbourhood inclusive and said in late 2023 that housing options were being studied, so public flats are expected but not announced. For the EL Development site this cuts both ways. A 390-home project completing in the early 2030s lands much closer to the finished neighbourhood than One Marina Gardens did, so its buyer base should be wider; but a precinct designed for families will be judged on a primary school and an open station, and neither has a date.

What launch price does $1,243 psf ppr point to?

Analysts put the eventual launch between $2,500 and $2,950 psf, and our own reading sits at roughly $2,650 to $2,900 psf. CBRE’s Song expects $2,850 to $2,950 psf if the site is awarded at the tendered price; SRI’s Sandrasegeran thinks the land rate gives EL Development room to launch at $2,500 to $2,600 psf. The precinct’s own history is the better guide. One Marina Gardens launched at an average of $2,953 psf on land bought at $1,402, a multiple of about 2.1 times. W Residences Marina View, on land IOI bought at $1,379 psf ppr in 2021, has sold at a median of about $2,660 psf since its July 2025 launch, a multiple of about 1.9 times. Apply 2.1 to 2.3 times to $1,243 and you get roughly $2,600 to $2,860 psf, which is where our estimate comes from. Treat it as an approximation, not developer pricing.

What does this mean for One Marina Gardens?

A cheaper neighbour is coming, but not a cheap one, and the precinct gets the second anchor it needed. One Marina Gardens is roughly 72% sold, with 672 of 937 units caveated at an average of about $2,970 psf since its April 2025 launch, and a median of $3,009 psf across the 115 units sold so far in 2026. If EL Development launches where CBRE expects, at $2,850 to $2,950 psf, the new project sits just under One Marina Gardens with a newer date on it. If it launches where SRI expects, around $2,500 to $2,600 psf, it undercuts the precinct’s only benchmark by about 15%. Either way, Kingsford is pricing its remaining 265 or so units knowing a second showflat with an 11% lower land base is on its way.

For the buyers who are already in, three things change. First, the exit clock. Most launch-weekend buyers bought in April 2025, before the 4 July 2025 change that stretched the seller’s stamp duty holding period to four years, so their three-year SSD windows close from April 2028, a few months before the expected TOP in the third quarter of 2028. Anyone who bought on or after 4 July 2025 is on the four-year schedule and cannot sell free of SSD before mid-2029. A 2028 sub-sale will therefore be marketed against a brand-new launch next door on cheaper land, and possibly against that launch’s own price list. The exit for an early flip depends on the precinct maturing, not on scarcity.

Second, the rental maths. About 390 more units arrive around 2031, competing for the same expatriate tenants that ERA’s Marcus Chu expects investors here to rely on. That is a real headwind for a one-bedroom bought on yield. But it is also the point at which Marina South stops being one condo in a field and starts being a neighbourhood with enough residents to support the shops, the childcare centre and the bus routes that make a place rentable at all.

Third, the catalysts arrive faster with a second developer on site. The tender conditions, as reported by 99.co, require the developer to build the planned section of Marina Gardens Crescent, with its footpaths and cycling lanes, and open it before the project can get its TOP, and to build two bus stops along Marina Gardens Drive with a covered linkway. LTA ties the opening of Marina South station to the surrounding developments; a second completed project is the strongest argument yet for switching it on. And One Marina Gardens keeps the structural advantage that justified its higher land price: it is the plot with the direct connection to the station, the childcare centre and the retail at ground level. The released site plans, on 99.co’s reading, do not show a direct underground link for the new site.

Is One Marina Gardens still worth a look after this tender?

Yes, for a buyer who wants the only finished product in the precinct and is honest about the exit. The sole bid changes the maths for a quick flip; it does not change what One Marina Gardens is. Six things survive the tender, and each one is a number rather than a brochure line.

The catch is the same as the case: everything above is a 2028 to 2031 story. Buy it as a home you will live in or hold through the precinct’s build-out and the sole bid is a comparable, not a threat. Buy it to flip at TOP and the sole bid just told you that a brand-new neighbour on cheaper land will be selling against you. Balance-unit prices are the developer’s to change, so check the live price list, not the August one.

What does the sole bid mean for the Marina South precinct?

Marina South now has a price floor and a pace signal, and URA’s next decision sets both. If the authority accepts $1,243 psf ppr, the precinct’s private pipeline becomes 937 homes at One Marina Gardens, about 390 on this site and 515 at W Residences Marina View next door in Marina Bay, roughly 1,840 homes against a long-term plan of more than 10,000. The 775-home Marina Gardens Crescent white site stays on the Reserve List, which means it only comes to tender when a developer applies with a price the government will accept, and the 2024 episode showed what happens when that price is too low. If URA rejects this bid as it rejected the last sole bid, the precinct stalls for a second time and One Marina Gardens stays alone on its field for several more years.

The acceptance case is stronger than in 2024. This bid is 26% above the rejected one, it sits inside the range of the 2023 bids, and the site is small enough that one developer can carry it. URA also has a public interest in momentum: the Master Plan 2025 describes Marina South as a car-lite, 10-minute neighbourhood with two MRT stations, an elevated bridge to Gardens by the Bay and the Marina Coastal Park, and an underground pedestrian link beneath its pedestrian mall. None of that infrastructure earns its keep with one condo. PropNex’s Wong Siew Ying expects developer interest to firm as the precinct builds out and amenities arrive; the quickest way to get there is to let the second project start.

For buyers, the floor matters more than the ceiling. A $1,243 land rate means there will be no cheap Marina South launch: the arithmetic above puts the new project at $2,600 psf or more even on the kindest multiple. The alternative is the older stock across the water. Marina One Residences, V on Shenton and One Shenton have traded this year at medians of $1,829 to $1,889 psf, The Sail @ Marina Bay at about $2,100 and Marina Bay Residences at about $2,480, according to CBRE. That is a gap of roughly $400 to $1,100 psf between the older towers and the two new launches: between a 2017 completion with a working MRT station and a 2031 completion with a promise of one. Whether the gap is worth paying is the question every Marina South buyer should be able to answer before a showflat answers it for them.

Who should care, and what to do

Related: the Berlayar Drive sole bid, and why one bid does not mean cheap →

Related: the land-cost floor under every new launch price →

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